Naples earthquake: Campi Flegrei's strongest recorded quake displaced thousands, and its tourism effect is unmeasured

What INGV measured on 31 July

INGV's event page gives the time as 17:46:43 UTC, or 19:46:43 Italian time, and the magnitude as Md 4.7, with an uncertainty of 0.3. Md is duration magnitude, the scale INGV's Vesuvius Observatory uses for its Campi Flegrei series. The same event measured Mw 4.4 on the moment magnitude scale. The event page gives the depth as 3 km and marks it as a fixed value in its location solution. The Observatory's own analysis puts the hypocentre at about 2.4 km beneath the Solfatara, and an early figure of 2.6 km circulated on the night. All three describe a very shallow quake.

The event page lists distances from town halls: Pozzuoli and Quarto 5 km, Bacoli 6 km, Monte di Procida 8 km, Marano di Napoli and Naples 9 km. A second shock of Md 3.8 followed at 22:00 Italian time. The Observatory first identified more than 400 earthquakes in the swarm, and more than 1,000 after a re-analysis covering 31 July to 2 August. Its July bulletin counts 426 earthquakes for the month, five of them Md 3.0 or more.

The first-night effects were reported by AGI on 1 August. Firefighters evacuated 130 households, about 290 people, mostly near Pozzuoli's port. Pozzuoli hospital treated 19 people. The Prefect said 21 were in hospital that evening and 5 remained the next day. A crack opened in the harbour mole, and the Coast Guard closed the quay. In Naples, AGI reported that the most significant damage was the collapse of a wall in a single-storey building in via Righi. Thousands of homes lost power, and supply was restored by midnight.

Seismicity then fell. INGV counted 428 earthquakes in August, with a maximum of Md 3.4 on 10 August, and 91 in September, with a maximum of Md 2.0. The uplift rate stayed at about 10 mm a month, as it had been since early February 2026. Each monthly bulletin from July to September repeats the same assessment: "non si evidenziano elementi tali da suggerire significative evoluzioni a breve termine", meaning nothing in the data suggests significant change in the short term. The October bulletin had not been published on 7 November.

Seven quakes of Md 4.0 or more since May 2024 in the INGV records we opened

The 31 July quake is part of a sequence. Each new maximum has replaced the last: Md 4.4 in May 2024, Md 4.6 in March 2025, and Md 4.7 in July 2026. The Observatory counts 11 earthquakes of Md 4.0 or more since the current phase of unrest began in 2005, including this one. Seven of them appear in the documents listed below, all since May 2024.

Two of these dates are often misreported. The March 2025 quake was first communicated as 4.4. INGV's weekly bulletin records it as Md 4.6 at a depth of 2.5 km, and Geopop reported the revision on 18 March 2025. The May 2026 quake, an Md 4.4 in the Gulf of Pozzuoli, is missing from several timelines of the crisis, although the August 2026 government decree names it among the events its aid covers. Avvenire wrote on 7 September of five quakes above 4.0 "since 24 May 2024". That count matches these records for the date it gives, but INGV dates the quake that opened the run to 20 May 2024.

The sequence matters for visitors because it shows how often strong quakes have come. INGV publishes no forecast of when the next will come. It publishes what it measures each week and each month, and we found no official body that publishes the probability of a larger quake in any given period.

Who had to leave, and why the counts disagree

The early count travelled furthest. On 4 August the Prefect of Naples, Michele di Bari, gave a figure of about 700 displaced people, as Fanpage reported: 568 in accommodation they had found themselves and 128 in hotels in Pozzuoli. That number was correct for that day and was quickly overtaken as engineers inspected buildings.

The counts in the table measure different things. Some count people, some households, some housing units, some buildings, and one counts evacuation orders. The Prefect's briefings and the Prefettura's data are the official series. Il Post's and Avvenire's figure of about 4,000 is the outlets' own. No Protezione Civile, Comune di Pozzuoli or Prefettura page with a later count was found, and no figure for October or November.

Most displaced residents found their own housing. On 10 August the Prefect said over 90% had done so. Hotels housed 106 people on 8 August, and Il Post reported just over 100 in hotels across the province on 1 September. Avvenire reported on 21 August that 215 buildings with 1,081 housing units had been declared unsafe. On 7 September it described barriers across Pozzuoli's centre, closed post offices, health offices and banks, and 19 churches under seal. Earlier displacement has not been fully settled either. Il Post reported on 1 September that about 1,500 people displaced after the quake of 20 May 2024 had still not been compensated.

Schools show how quickly the picture moved. On 4 August the Prefect said 13 schools were unusable, as Fanpage reported. On 21 August Avvenire, citing a municipal report, listed 14 damaged schools in Pozzuoli, of which 8 were partly usable and 6 unusable. Both figures can be right for their dates. Neither is a count of tourist facilities, and no list of closed hotels, restaurants or beach clubs has been published.

The government acted twice. Decree-law n. 144 of 7 August 2026 added a housing contribution for families whose main home was declared unsafe and a fund for repairs; press reports give conflicting amounts for the allowance. On 13 October the Council of Ministers approved a decree-law titled "Piano straordinario per i Campi Flegrei". It names the president of Regione Campania as extraordinary commissioner until 31 December 2036. It sets up two funds of €50 million a year for ten years each, which is the €1 billion total reported in the press. It also suspends taxes and contributions from 31 July to 30 November 2026 for residents and businesses in evacuated buildings. Mortgage payments on evacuated main homes and business premises are suspended until 31 December 2027. We did not find its Gazzetta Ufficiale number. We found no national state of emergency declared for Campi Flegrei in 2026.

What closed for visitors, and what reopened

The damage is concentrated in Pozzuoli, the town most visitors pass through on the way to Ischia and Procida or the Roman sites of the Phlegraean Fields. The harbour quay closed on 1 August. Avvenire reported on 7 September that ferry links to the islands had resumed; we did not find the date. Il Post noted that ferries were full but few passengers stopped in town, and that the inner harbour had been left almost dry by the uplift.

Rail links were also hit. Meteoweb reported on 3 August that the Cumana line was already suspended between Bagnoli and Torregaveta in the preceding weeks. It had now also lost the Monte Olibano tunnel between Dazio and Gerolomini. The metro between Pozzuoli and Campi Flegrei had stopped because of excess carbon dioxide in a tunnel. We found no report of the status of either line in November. Anyone planning to reach Pozzuoli or Baia by train should check the operator on the day.

Heritage sites reopened in stages. Il Sole 24 Ore reported on 8 August that the Flavian Amphitheatre had reopened with restricted access and that the Aragonese Castle of Baia had reopened. The Solfatara, above the epicentre, was not open to visitors before the quake. It has been closed since September 2017, when three people died after the ground gave way. The seizure was lifted in February 2025, and Napolike reported on 1 September 2026 that there was still no reopening date. We found no official status page from the archaeological park.

One closure this month has nothing to do with the earthquake. GESAC, which runs Naples Capodichino, closed the airport from 1 to 30 November 2026 for runway works costing €30 million, AGI reported on 29 October. Fifteen destinations moved to Salerno airport, with a €12 bus from Piazza Garibaldi. Our Salerno airport analysis covers that airport's traffic, and our Naples travel guide covers the usual routes into the city.

The red zone, the yellow alert and what cannot be predicted

The earthquake risk and the eruption plan are separate things. The national emergency plan of the Department of Civil Protection defines a red zone, where preventive evacuation is the only protective measure if an eruption alarm is declared. It covers Pozzuoli, Bacoli, Monte di Procida and Quarto; part of Giugliano in Campania and Marano di Napoli; the Naples quartieri of Soccavo, Pianura, Bagnoli and Fuorigrotta; and part of San Ferdinando, Posillipo, Chiaia, Arenella, Vomero, Chiaiano and Montecalvario. "Nell'area vivono circa 500mila abitanti", the Department states: about 500,000 people live there. A yellow zone exposed to ash fall holds over 800,000 more, including most of central Naples. The plan allows 72 hours to move the red-zone population: 12 hours of preparation, 48 of departures and 12 as a margin. Residents who do not make their own arrangements are matched with twinned Italian regions, under the plan's 2016 decree.

Several districts popular with visitors, including Chiaia, Vomero, Posillipo and San Ferdinando, lie partly inside the red-zone planning area. Evacuation there would apply only if an eruption alarm were declared. The earthquake damage was concentrated in Pozzuoli.

The alert level is yellow. INGV's July, August and September bulletins all give "Giallo - Disequilibrio Medio". The Department's own pages say the level was raised to yellow in 2012, and the scale runs green, yellow, orange and red. The Department declares changes with the regional authorities, after consulting the Major Risks Commission. We found no change of level after 31 July, and no Department statement on a Commission meeting after the quake.

On prediction, the clearest official sentence comes from the Department: "it is not possible to predict with certainty when, how and where the next eruption will occur." INGV's bulletins make a narrower point, that current data show no sign of significant short-term change. Neither statement is a guarantee. Both say what the monitoring shows and what it cannot show.

What governments tell travellers

We read four foreign-ministry advisories on 7 November 2026. The UK Foreign Office page, updated on 3 November, says: "National emergency planning is in place for the Phlegraean fields, an area that remains active experiencing regular tremors." Canada's advice, updated on 22 October, sets Italy at "Exercise a high degree of caution" and says that "Mount Vesuvius and the Phlegraean Fields in the Naples area are active volcanoes". Its general section on volcanoes tells travellers to monitor local media, follow local authorities and "be prepared to modify your travel arrangements or even evacuate the area on short notice". Australia's Smartraveller sets Italy at "exercise normal safety precautions" and advises visitors to find out their hotel's earthquake procedure. The US State Department's advisory, "Exercise increased caution due to terrorism", does not mention earthquakes, volcanoes or Naples.

None of the four names the 31 July quake or Pozzuoli, and none sets a separate level for the Naples area because of it. We could not read Italy's own foreign-ministry service, and we found no visitor statement from ENIT or Regione Campania. The Department of Civil Protection's "Io Non Rischio" earthquake pages could not be reached when we checked, so we do not summarise them here.

Is Naples safe after the earthquake?

Searches for "is Naples safe" rose with the quake. The measured facts are these. The official alert level is yellow and did not change. Damage and evacuations were concentrated in Pozzuoli and neighbouring towns. The most significant damage reported in Naples, according to AGI, was a collapsed wall in a single-storey building in via Righi. Foreign governments set their levels for Italy for terrorism or general precautions, and none names the quake. Seismicity fell from 428 earthquakes in August to 91 in September.

What is not measured matters as much. We found no official body that publishes the probability of another Md 4.0 or larger. In the sequence since 2024, new maxima have come about 10 and 17 months apart. Felt quakes have recurred around Pozzuoli since 2024. For everyday safety in Naples, which our guides discuss in terms of petty crime, see our things to do in Naples guide.

What tourism data show after the Naples earthquake

The only official traffic series published since the quake is airport passengers. Naples Capodichino handled 1,578,238 passengers in July 2026, 1,634,921 in August and 1,483,050 in September, on Assaeroporti's figures. Growth on the same months of 2025 was 7.9%, 7.3% and 7.4%. Italy as a whole grew 7.0%, 5.9% and 6.5%. For January to September Naples reached 11,137,665 passengers, up 7.9%.

These figures show no fall at the airport after 31 July. They do not show demand for Pozzuoli. Capodichino serves Naples, Capri, Ischia, Sorrento and the Amalfi Coast. Passengers are counted on arrival and on departure, residents are included, and many August seats were sold before the quake. Nothing in the series separates visitors bound for the Phlegraean Fields. Our Italy airports analysis explains the series in more detail.

Every statement of loss comes from trade bodies or the press. On 4 August Stylo24 quoted Roberto Laringe, president of Federalberghi Campi Flegrei: "Registriamo tantissime cancellazioni in giorni in cui l'occupazione era al 100%" (many cancellations on days when occupancy had been 100%). Costanzo Iaccarino, president of Federalberghi Campania, spoke of a "fuggi fuggi generale", a general rush to leave. Neither gave a number. Cronaca di Napoli wrote on 7 August of a "massiccia ondata di disdette" and a compromised summer, again without figures. On 9 August La Bussola News headlined beach attendance "crollate fino al 70%", while its text said the fall "avrebbe", or reportedly had, reached 70% in some parts of Pozzuoli. It named no source and gave no baseline.

The one official tourism measure is money. On 13 August Regione Campania announced €1 million from the FSC development fund for a marketing campaign for Campi Flegrei, at a meeting convened by its tourism assessor, Vincenzo Maraio, with president Roberto Fico. A separate €1 million, announced on 3 August, is for housing contributions to displaced families. Neither announcement gave a visitor or cancellation figure.

The baseline is better known than the shock. Our Naples tourism article found 3,862,329 nights in the comune of Naples in 2024 on ISTAT data, and 15,749,028 nights in 2025 in Eurostat's Napoli area, which covers the metropolitan city from Pozzuoli to Sorrento and the islands. Capodichino handled 13,271,522 passengers in 2025. None of these series has a Pozzuoli line in the sources we used, and none has yet been published for August or September 2026 at the level of the town.

The gap will be hard to close. ISTAT publishes municipal nights a year or more after the event, and Eurostat's figures for the Napoli area combine Pozzuoli with Naples, Capri and Sorrento. We found no published bed count for the red-zone towns. Our report on Etna and Catania airport met the same pattern this summer: a hazard with measurable physical effects and no measured effect on tourism.

Figures that should not be repeated

Four widely shared statements about the quake do not hold as circulated. The panel sets each against the source that settles it.

What this means for travellers, businesses and analysts

Travellers. In Naples itself, AGI reported the collapse of one wall in via Righi as the most significant damage, and the official alert stayed yellow throughout. Pozzuoli is where the effects sit. Its centre is cordoned, displaced residents are housed in some hotels, and rail and metro links were disrupted in August with no confirmed status since. If your plans include Pozzuoli, Baia or a ferry from Pozzuoli to Ischia or Procida, check the operator and the archaeological park on the day. The Solfatara has been closed since 2017. In November, fly into Salerno or reach Naples by train while Capodichino is shut. Ask your hotel for its earthquake procedure, as Australia's advice suggests, and follow Protezione Civile and municipal instructions if a quake is felt. Our Capri travel guide covers the ferries from Naples, which do not use Pozzuoli.

Tourism businesses and investors. The binding constraint is uncertainty. Hotels in Pozzuoli housed displaced residents while reporting cancellations, and no one has published occupancy or rates for the town since 31 July. Airport data for the gulf as a whole show growth above the national rate in July, August and September. The thresholds that would change the assessment are clear: a change of alert level by the Department of Civil Protection, a new quake above Md 4.7, or official data showing a fall in nights in the Napoli area. Anyone underwriting a Phlegraean Fields property should read the red-zone plan and the decree of 13 October, which limits new land use in the area.

Journalists and analysts. The box above lists the figures that can be cited, each with its source and date. Do not repeat "700 displaced" as a current figure, because the Prefect's own later counts replaced it within days. Do not repeat the "70%" beach fall, which has no named source or baseline, or a magnitude of 4.4 for the March 2025 quake, which INGV revised. No loss estimate in circulation has a published method. When the Prefettura and the press disagree on the displaced total, give both with their dates. The pattern matches our Etna and Catania report this summer. The hazard and the official response are measured precisely. Their effect on visitors has not been measured.